3 Reasons Why Newt Can Win, One Reason Why He Won't

Newt Gingrich, not my favorite candidate for president or dog catcher, has been coming on strong.  My feeling is that Newt is a protest candidate and a signal from GOP voters that they are not happy with the current GOP candidates.  But some people think that Newt has a chance to win the whole enchilada.
From Ben Shapiro and FrontPage.Com: For well over a year now, we’ve been hearing that Mitt Romney was the inevitable nominee for the Republican Party.  I’ve personally heard it from Republican fundraisers, Republican Party staffers, and high-ranking conservative commentators.  Not only was Romney inevitable, they’d say, he deserved inevitability, because he was clearly the most electable candidate.
With Newt Gingrich blowing Romney’s inevitability meme out of the water in South Carolina and Florida, the question is no longer whether Mitt is inevitable – he’s not—but whether he deserves to be the nominee based on electability.
I believe Mitt is, in fact, virtually unelectable.  By contrast, I believe that Newt Gingrich has a serious shot at beating President Obama.  Here’s why.
(1) Narrative.  Presidential elections are decided on narrative and who gets to define it.  In 2004, conservatives succeeded in defining the race as a strong and stable wartime president against a flip-flopping Vietnam-era radical who lied about his war record.  In 2008, Obama and the media defined the narrative, which quickly became “The Chosen One.”...
It will be significantly more difficult for Obama to craft a narrative about Newt.  Obama can’t attack Newt on lobbying – Obama’s stacked his administration with lobbyists, and he was the #2 recipient of Fannie/Freddie money in the Senate.  He can’t attack Newt on job creation – if Obama wants to argue Gingrich era job creation vs. Obama era job creation, good luck to him.  He could go after him on his personal life, but the only people who care about that are conservative, anyway.  He can’t attack Newt as an elitist – they’re both professors.  So what’s left?  The “crazy old coot” argument.  If Newt can avoid that pitfall, as he’s been doing so far with Romney, he can maintain his image as the “big idea guy” who worked with and against Clinton to create massive economic growth.
The Republican establishment constantly acts as though it must run the most moderate possible candidate in order to win.  Candidates without clear vision, in this view, run the best.  Once again, that’s wrong.  Gallup shows that 40 percent of Americans consider themselves conservative; 35 percent of Americans consider themselves moderate; just 21 percent of Americans consider themselves liberal.  That means that for a Republican to win convincingly, he need only win less than one out of three moderates and draw the entire conservative base.
There are two ways of winning moderates.  The first is to pose as a moderate – but in doing so, you risk losing your base (see McCain, John).  The second is to run as a reasonable conservative, but portray your opponent as a vastly radical liberal (see Reagan, Ronald).  The better strategy, obviously, is the Reagan strategy....
It’s true that Newt has the capacity to blow up at any time.  But he also has the capacity to come back from blowing himself up.  He’s the zombie candidate.  You cannot put him down.  He was destroyed in Iowa.  He was destroyed in New Hampshire.  He’s about to win South Carolina and Florida.
That’s the risk and the reward of Newt.  His brilliance means that he has the ability to inspire.  It also means he can say things that leave you scratching your head.  By and large, Newt is capable of adjusting on the fly, however.  He does not go down for the count.
http://frontpagemag.com/2012/01/25/the-three-reasons-newt-is-more-electable-than-mitt/
And the reason why he won't even be nominated:


Gingrich is not a conservative.  In some areas, perhaps, moderate in others and very liberal on some issues, like global warming.  And to be in a commercial with Pelosi is almost unforgivable.  That's like a pig sleeping with a butcher. 
When we have our caucus on Feb. 4th in Nevada, my vote will not go to Gingrich and it certainly will not go to Ron Paul or Mitt Romney.  I like Santorum, but he has no chance to win, even if he makes it to Nevada.  So, hopefully, they will have none of the above on the ballot, otherwise, I am screwed.