From the Washington Examiner:
Even if he wins half of the remaining Republican presidential delegates,
front-runner Mitt Romney will fall 345 delegates short of the 1,144
needed to win the nomination, possibly setting up a brokered
convention, according to a new analysis by the “super PAC” backing
challenger Rick Santorum.
In a white paper from the Red, White & Blue Fund, the
analysis shows that Romney would have only 799 “bound” delegates going
into the Tampa GOP convention. Romney’s team claims that their math has
them winning more than 1,144. RW&B said: “So far, 697 delegates have been allocated by either state party rule or state law to particular candidates. If each candidate continues
to accumulate the 918 remaining delegates that will be bound at the
same rate, no candidate will reach 1,144 going into Tampa. Mitt Romney
currently has 344 delegates by our count. If he continues to accumulate
bound delegates at the same rate (49% of bound delegates) moving
forward, he will add approximately 450 of the 918 delegates still to be
bound. This would give Romney only 799 delegates going into Tampa.
”The fund starts at a lower number of delegates for each candidate than most
media counts. The reason: They only count bound delegates, of which
there are fewer. For example, their delegate list has Romney with 344,
Santorum with 193, Newt Gingrich with 160 and Ron Paul with 33.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/washington-secrets/2012/03/santo-group-romney-will-fall-345-delegates-short/397166
I think a brokered convention will be good for the GOP. It will create a crazy atmosphere with lots of media attention and will create a lot of interest in the GOP party. There will wall to wall coverage of a brokered convention and most of the publicity will be positive. And since many GOP just don't like the current crop of GOP candidate, we actually may get a different candidate for president. The more attention on a brokered means less attention on Obama and that will be a positive.
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I don't think it will go there, but I also doubt that if it did, that most of the coverage would be positive. It would be a huge blow to Romney, and would show the party to be in disarray. If Jeb Bush, or Chris Christie or Sarah Palin somehow got the nomination at the convention, the storyline would be how they muscled their way in and stole it.
ReplyDeleteIt would also mean (if it wasn't Romney or Santorum--or Gingrich or Paul--snicker) that the nominee would have a very short time to campaign. Anyway, the GOP heavy-hitters bench isn't very deep. Who would they put in there?