$3,000,000,000 Nevada State Budget Deficit? NPRI Says No

It is common knowledge that most people say that the Nevada state budget for the next two years is going to be $3 billion. Well the Nevada Policy Research Institute says not so fast. The figures are not as bad and that the politicians and state employees are lying about the budget.
From NPRI: For the current, 2009-11 biennium, Nevada's general-fund budget is about $6.4 billion. For the next budget cycle, both Andrew Clinger, the governor's budget director, and Russell Guindon, senior deputy fiscal analyst at the Legislative Counsel Bureau (which is cited in Rory Reid's budget plan), have confirmed to the Nevada Policy Research Institute that they project Nevada will collect more than $5 billion in taxes — and this assumes that the 2009 legislative session's temporary tax hikes will expire.
In the real world, $5 billion minus $6.4 billion equals a deficit of $1.4 billion. But government accounting is not quite in the real world.
Instead, government accounting works like this: $5 billion minus ($6.4 billion budget plus a $1.5 billion spending increase) equals a $2.9 billion deficit....
But Clinger's assumptions, like most, also conceal the $1.5 billion spending increase. He has alluded to the spending increase by noting that the budget he's talking about assumes that furloughs and pay freezes will end, but, for individuals and reporters who aren't as intimately familiar with the budget as he is (read: everyone), that's easy to miss.
The end result has been that reporters, politicians and citizens are assuming and stating as fact that Nevada faces a $3 billion, 50 percent budget deficit out of its current, $6.4 billion budget. This is inaccurate. Neither Clinger nor the LCB is predicting that will be the case, but the "50 percent deficit" and "$3 billion budget deficit" falsehoods have spread throughout Nevada....
In real-world terms, to bring expenditures in line with projected revenues, Nevada only needs to decrease spending by about 20 percent from its current levels (or take more revenue from local governments).
Nevada can cut 20 percent from its budget. Many families and businesses in Nevada have already taken similar action with their own finances in the face of rising gas prices, lower wages, unexpected bills and higher taxes.
http://npri.org/publications/the-3-billion-deficit-myth
I think NPRI is correct, but the situation was made worse when Gibbons took the education stimulus money that is hiring teachers, paying bonuses and other expenditures. This is a one year only expenditure and money will need to be found next year or people will be layed off. Again.
But, I digress. The budget is bad but not quite as bad people think. Yes, there is some waste in State government, a lot more in CCSD and higher education and other areas of government. Can we cut 20%, especially with government mandates from the federal government? It is going to be tough though probably not impossible. It depends on the revenue stream from the casinos and other businesses and if we get more visitors from out of state.
But no matter what happens, it will be tough to be a legislator and governor in the next couple of years.