Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Constitutional Amendment To Ban Gay Marriage

From the Baltimore Sun:
In a friendly reminder (like you really needed it) that last week's Supreme Court decisions are far from the end of the marriage equality debate, 29 Congressional Republicans have come out in favor of a bill proposing a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage in the United States.
Among the co-sponsors of the bill is Rep. Andy Harris, the lone Republican in Maryland's congressional delegation.
The bill, known as the Marriage Protection Amendment, asks for the words "marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union of a man and a woman" to be added to the Constitution and would prevent state constitutions to require marriage to be "conferred upon" same-sex couples.
Harris' co-sponsorship of the proposed amendment may come as a surprise, given that a majority of Maryland voters approved legalizing same-sex marriage in a 2012 ballot measure. Plus, after the Supreme Court reversed the Defense of Marriage Act, Harris said he was glad the court upheld individual states' rights to define marriage - though he voiced his displeasure with the court's decision to overrule Congress.
Yet even though a majority of Maryland voters approved legalizing same-sex marriage in a 2012 ballot measure, Harris' district (which covers the entire Eastern Shore and portions of Baltimore, Harford and Carroll counties) actually voted against the ballot measure. It's those constituents who Harris represents in Congress, which puts his co-sponsorship of the Marriage Amendment in perspective.
For Harris' bill to become the 28th amendment, two-thirds of both the House and Senate would need to approve it -- and then all but 12 states would need to ratify it. Currently, 13 states have legalized same-sex marriage.
Read more: http://www.baltimoresun.com/features/gay-in-maryland/gay-matters/bal-harris-sponsors-amendment-to-ban-same-sex-marriage-20130702,0,4382998.story#ixzz2Xz1n3o2o
Can this happen?  Actually, I think it could.
If the GOP takes over the senate and House in 2014, it's possible, with the help of Blue Dog Democrats (conservative) and with re-elections in 2016, I can see this happening in Washington D.C.
And considering that that many of the states had judges approve ay marriage instead of through the legislative process, it is possible to get the States passing the amendment.
Is it going to be easy, of course not and it shouldn't be.  It should be very difficult to amend the constitution.
But is it possible?
Maybe a 25% chance of it happening.  Maybe 10%.  But it is a possibility.

1 comment:

  1. It almost certainly won't happen, and--of course--I think it shouldn't happen.

    First, the threashold is very, very high. Almost every Congressional Democrat is on board with marriage equality, and several Republicans as well. The numbers aren't there. Also, public sentiment has gone completely the other way in just the past several years. It's been over a decade since some of the states started passing constitutional amendments, and times have changed.

    Yes, Congress could change, and yes public sentiment could swing the other way, but I doubt it, very very much.

    The GOP has been larding on the nasty lately, and this would be just one more nasty thing. And while meanness appeals to lots of people in the base, it does not appeal to 66% of the House, Senate and the people.

    Ultimately, it's just a really bad idea. When is the last time we passed an amendment to TAKE AWAY rights? Prohibition? Look how that turned out. There are already thousands and thousands of married gay couples in the US (like yours truly), some for as much as 9 years. This genie is not going back in the bottle.

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