Don't Believe The Polls

Right now, most polls are showing the presidential race even with President Obama winning several of the swing states (Note to the liberally biased Channel 13 News in Vegas- a poll difference of 2 points doesn't mean Romney is lagging behind)
So, John McLaughlin, a Republican pollster, has this thought: The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR [Interactive Voice Response] polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want. Some polls have included sizable segments of voters who say they are ‘not enthusiastic’ to vote or non-voters to dilute Republicans. Major pollsters have samples with Republican affiliation in the 20 to 30 percent range, at such low levels not seen since the 1960s in states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and which then place Obama ahead. The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. We’ll see a lot more of this. Then there’s the debate between calling off a random-digit dial of phone exchanges vs. a known sample of actual registered voters. Most polls favoring Obama are random and not off the actual voter list. That’s too expensive” for some pollsters.  http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/327982/what-john-mclaughlin-sees-polls-right-now#
This theory hold true in the Wisconsin senate race where the GOP contender had a 9 point lead a month ago and the now the Democrat leads by a 9 point lead- a 18 point change in a month.  There was no major scandal, so what happened?  The polls, it turned out, used far more Democrat voters in their voting sample than Republicans, even though Wisconsin, especially recently, is evenly split between the 2 parties..
So, if you want to trust the polls, dig deep and see what what are the voting samples.  My guess, most polls use more Dem's than the GOP.