I am not going do a lot of predicting or writing many blog posts about the 2012 presidential elections. Quite frankly, just about everyone are doing articles and most have no idea what they are talking about. I'll do stories from time to time but not that many unless there is something important or strange.
Anyways, here is my short take. I think Romney will win because he is going to win several states Obama won in 2008.
Nevada: Romney will win because of the bad economy and because the Mormon vote. With the the exception of Utah, of course, Nevada has the second highest number of Mormons in the country. Harry Reid won in 2010 because he got an easy opponent and he got some of the Mormon vote (Reid is supposedly a Mormon). The Mormon vote will even out the Black and Hispanic vote in Nevada and Romney will clean up most of the white vote.
Florida: it will be close but the biggest swing vote will be fired NASA workers. When the Shuttle program shut down, that essentially ended NASA, laying off 10,000's of workers. While George Bush started the closing in motion, Obama was more than happy to finish NASA off and fired all those employees plus shuttle contractors and other businesses associated with NASA.
Wisconsin: When Scott Walker won the recall election, he put Wisconsin into play. Not only did the election put the State into play, it also took a lot of money out the public employee union's bank accounts. The unions, with fewer union members, will have very little money to put in the presidential race but instead will put their money in the State's senate race.. They are going to have to put their money in the State and local races. The Democrats are also burned out and will not be enthusiastic to vote in November in Wisconsin while the GOP has the momentum.
North Carolina: Obama won this State but will not in 2012. The Dem's are having their convention in Charlotte and I think it will be a disaster. You already have Democrats insulting North Carolina voters for their vote on gay marriage and others trying to yank the convention from North Carolina and that will not go over to well.
Massachusetts: Will Romney lose his home state? With Scott Brown going against a psycho who doesn't even know her heritage in the Senate race, it is quite possible Romney and Brown will win MA.
Montana: I'm not sure how Obama won Montana 2008 but he will not win it in 2012.
Georgia: Romney is going to win the entire South. I am confident that most Georgia voters will vote for the Mormon and not the liberal.
Indiana: See Wisconsin, Montana and Georgia.
I think other states Obama won in 2008 are in play as well in 2012 and the list includes Maine, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Missouri.
So, come November, we will have a close election but in the end, in January, we will be swearing in President Romney.
And this will be my last analysis until October. Let other people do the analyzing.